Crop and Acreage Reports

CROP AND ACREAGE REPORTS

NASS CROP FORECASTS AND ACREAGE REPORTS

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) produces crop forecasts and acreage reports for the California Almond industry which are released at noon on the dates noted in the calendar of events. Subjective reports provide early estimates of the coming crop after it is set. Objective reports highlight forecasts later in the growing season, close to harvest. These forecasts can then be compared to actual production and trade statistics in the form of Almond Board monthly position reports and tabulated annually in the Almond Almanac – both which can be accessed on the Almond Board Crop Reports tab.

NASS also produces annual estimates of the California Almond industry’s acreage.  These reports are released each spring and detail the total almond growing acreage for the previous year as well as distribution by variety, county and year planted.

While the Almond Board has funded research that has yielded alternative findings about almond acreage, NASS’s almond acreage reports, subjective and objective crop forecasts and others are the official USDA estimates and will continue to serve as the official statistics for the industry.

Below is a listing of NASS almond-related reports for the past three years. Click here to access reports for previous years.

Acreage Report

Subjective Forecast

Objective Report

Nursery Report

LAND IQ ACREAGE REPORTS

Almond Industry Maps

The Almond Board of California provides a comprehensive mapping analysis to improve the precision, accuracy and transparency of information about the almond industry. Understanding the impacts and opportunities of almond production is fundamental to responsible resource management, regulatory compliance and planning for the sustainable future of California agriculture. Mapping products are developed in partnership with Land IQ, a Sacramento-based agricultural and environmental scientific research and consulting firm. The maps constitute a comprehensive, living map of California Almonds that draws upon multiple sources of information and extensive validation to create a highly accurate, orchard-by-orchard view of the industry.

Click here to access the Almond Industry Maps.

Spatial Acreage Estimates

Behind the maps is a robust data set. The 2020 Standing Acreage Initial Estimate includes estimated bearing almond acres by county and by year planted from 1984 through 2017. It is based on standing acreage in 2020 and is also reflected in Land IQ’s 2020 almond acreage map layer. Bearing acreages have all been verified via ground truthing and/or spatial approaches.

Beginning in 2019, the Almond Board adjusted the mapping process to include annual reporting that now involves the release of two acreage summaries: an initial estimate delivered in June that includes a bearing acreage estimate and a final estimate delivered in December that includes bearing and non-bearing acreage estimates for the same production year. The December estimate, which builds off the initial estimate provided earlier in the year, utilizes a combination of extensive ground truthing and advanced remote sensing analytics to refine Land IQ’s initial findings. The ground truthing effort maps a subset of the almond orchard population throughout the Central Valley as well as all other crops along a nearly 4,000-mile route. Land IQ then uses this data to calibrate algorithms in a remotely sensed image analysis process. This process differentiates almond orchards from other tree and annual crops.

Findings from the spatial map are being used by USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) to fine-tune the official almond acreage reports and other forecasts and reports, and serve as a complementary almond industry resource. The NASS crop and acreage reports are the official USDA estimates and will continue to be the official statistics for the almond industry.

In the past, Land IQ data has indicated that California almond acreage is higher than USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Almond Acreage reports, as seen in a comparative analysis found at Almonds.com/Maps. In recent years, these differences have narrowed as findings from the spatial map are being used by USDA-NASS to fine-tune the official Almond Acreage reports and other forecasts and reports, and serve as a complementary almond industry resource. The USDA-NASS crop and acreage reports are the official USDA estimates and will continue to be the official statistics for the almond industry.

Removed Acreage Estimate

In addition to spatial acreage estimates, ABC commissioned Land IQ to create a map layer showing removed acreage in the last year. 2019 is the first year Land IQ provided this layer, which gives an estimate as to how many almond acres were removed between June/July of 2018 and April/May of 2019. The latest report provides an estimate on removals from June/July 2019 and April/May 2020.
 

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1Bearing acreage estimates are 98.8% accurate spatially and even more accurate numerically.